« All eyes on ARCA Friday night at 'Dega | Main | Talladega Notes and I missed that Meeting! »
October 07, 2006
Grace under pressure
By DAVID GREEN
A weekend ago, when qualifying was finished for the Chinese Grand Prix, Renault's Fernando Alonso was on the pole with teammate Giancarlo Fisichella alongside on the front row. Michael Schumacher's Ferrari was back in the third row. Schumacher, chasing the reigning champion Alonso, had sliced a 25-point deficit to a mere 2 points going into the Shanghai race.
As the qualifying session ended, chatter on the Renault team radios, broadcast by Speed, featured someone referring sarcastically to "poor old Michael."
Schumacher laughed last on that weekend, though, after a masterful drive to victory. Combined with Alonso's second-place finish, it lifted Schumacher into a tie in points, but because of his seven victories to Alonso's six, it meant the seven-time champion had actually edged ahead of Alonso with two races to go.
No doubt, Schumacher had claimed an edge in the mental aspect of the battle. Alonso was definitely showing signs of cracking under the stress of their championship fight. He complained that his team was not giving him proper support, and he criticized Fisichella for attempting to overtake him in the middle stages of the race as Alonso led, with Schumacher a close third.
In NASCAR, the Chase for the Cup format guarantees every championship fight will be just as close as the two-driver fight in this year's Formula One season, with even more drivers in the mix. It also guarantees that we will get a chance to see which drivers and their teams handle the pressure-cooker atmosphere of such a showdown.
So far, the greatest poise is being shown by Joe Gibbs Racing and its rookie championship contender, Denny Hamlin. Team and driver are both quietly putting together a solid performance and it has Hamlin in second place in points after three races. The Gibbs team also has a victory by non-Chase driver Tony Stewart, the reigning Cup champ.
High marks also go to Richard Childress Racing, which has the leading driver -- Jeff Burton -- and the fifth-place guy -- Kevin Harvick -- going into Talladega. The RCR team showed some angry emotion after an unconfirmed report by Speed's Bob Dillner accused them of using wheels that supposedly had been altered in violation of NASCAR rules, but while Harvick's performance seemed to go on a rollercoaster ride, Burton soared to his first victory in five years, at Dover. He followed that up with a fifth at Kansas that put him atop the standings.
Roush Racing also has two top-five drivers in third-place Mark Martin and fourth-place Matt Kenseth. There were signs of stress late in the Dover race when, after he came out second-best in a spectacular battle for the lead with Burton, Kenseth ran out of gas. "This is stupid," the normally stoic Kenseth radioed his crew as his car sputtered. And Martin, of course, has become a lame duck in the Roush No. 6 Ford, having announced a deal to run a part-time Cup schedule next year in an MB2 Motorsports Chevrolet.
Surprisingly, the Goliath of the Chase -- Hendrick Motorsports -- is languishing, with its drivers in sixth, eight and ninth place. Kyle Busch, who started the Chase among the circuit's hottest drivers, has stumbled badly. Jeff Gordon saw a promising finish go away at Kansas when the fuel pump in his Chevy failed. Jimmie Johnson continues to be victimized by the most bizarre of occurrences.
Seventh and 10th are Dale Earnhardt Jr. and Kasey Kahne. Junior and the Dale Earnhardt Inc. team seem unable to get their program back to the level it enjoyed in 2004, when Junior rose to the top of the standings with a victory at Talladega. That lead was short-lived, as Earnhardt was docked 25 points for using foul language in a televised victory interview. The team has never fully recovered from that setback.
Kahne, after seeing his efforts thwarted in his first two Cup seasons, finally made the Chase field this year. Making the cut was the last good thing to happen to Kahne and the Evernham Motorsports team.
As every Chase driver (except Kahne and Busch) will quickly affirm, it's way too early to start making determinations about how things are going to turn out. There are still many unanswered questions.
Will Hamlin pull off a championship in his first Cup season? (My guess -- it's possible.)
Will Burton maintain his performance and finally win the championship that he seemed destined to win in the late 1990s? (Good chance of it.)
Will Harvick regain the form that carried him into the Chase with the favorite's role and take the big prize? (It could happen.)
Will Roush win a third championship in four years? (Possibly, if Martin can take his performance up a notch or Kenseth can get back to the error-free level where his Robbie Reiser-led team usually operates.)
Will Johnson or Gordon race out from underneath the monkeys that seem to have perched on the top of their cars? (For sure, both have been on the outs with Lady Luck for a long time now. Who knows when that might change?)
Will Earnhardt Jr. regain his old form at Talladega, bounce back into contention, and keep his victory lane interview G-rated? (A 33rd-place qualifying run suggests no chance of the former, and, consequently, no worries about the latter.)
And finally, is it really over for Busch and Kahne? (The guess here is, yes.)
October 7, 2006 | Permalink
Comments
A very good read on where every one is at this point in the chase. Junior definately needs to seperate from his family and that includes DEI. The company is going straight down hill and under present ownership, it will never recover.
J. Gordon, in my opinion, can definately still win #5 this year, while the 48 team needs changes to get out of their free fall at the end of each season.
EMS can change drivers, but their chase results are the same. Same as 48, some thing has to change.
RCR has made changes, spent the money to bring in new talent at the shop, especially engines and so in my opinion they are tied with JG for the best chance to win it all.
AND SO THE ROOKIE FOOLS US ALL??
Posted by: 328 | Oct 8, 2006 12:32:30 PM
David,
"In NASCAR, the Chase for the Cup format guarantees every championship fight will be just as close as the two-driver fight in this year's Formula One season, with even more drivers in the mix." - David Green
I would have said, "NASCAR, using it's "Chase for the Cup" format, artificially, but gamely, tries to manufacture higher TV ratings by allowing non-competitive "Name" teams to compete for a trophy they did not earn."
Formula One's Trophy is among the top 2 drivers. Just as there were only 2 NASCAR drivers who had a legitimate title shot w/o the Chase. The Chase is a gimmick that doesn't belong.
As an aside...I should have left the computer off this morning. I saw the F-1 race results and knowing the outcome (and I won't say it) makes it un-watchable.
Posted by: Keith | Oct 8, 2006 12:40:51 PM
David if you had tod us way back after The
Bud Shoot Out,where DH would be to-day not
very many people (incuding me) would not believe it.
DH has raised the bar for rookies,he has put
it out of reach of many future stars.
Posted by: trucker | Oct 8, 2006 1:17:48 PM
328, thanks for the comments. Junior's performance today proved me wrong in dismissing the 8 car's chances to win. He was probably going to get passed, whether he got wrecked or not, on the final lap. But he had a good showing -- better than I expected.
After today, I think Gordo's chances are just about gone. It is amazing how snakebit the 24 and 48 teams seem to be.
Keith, perhaps you should read the quote one more time. I wrote that the Chase format guarantees a close finish with more than two drivers in the mix. Whether you like the Chase or not, whether you think the results of it are valid or invalid, my statement was correct. It does create a guaranteed close finish. It virtually HAS to, bunching the top 10 drivers with a 45-point spread with 10 races to go. Call it a gimmick or whatever other derisive label you can come up with, but it is the official manner in which the NASCAR champion is crowned.
Personally, I like the old way better. I'd rather have a genuinely exciting, spontaneous close finish, such as the one in Formula One, every once in awhile rather than a contrived shootout, such as that created by the Chase, every year. But it's not my call.
Trucker, surely nobody would have believed how Denny Hamlin has performed this year. However, it is the Chase that has put him in position to win the Cup championship. Surely the best performance ever by a NASCAR rookie in modern times is the one turned in by Tony Stewart in 1999 -- three wins, 21 top 10s, and a no-gimmicks-necessary fourth-place finish in driver points.
Y'all don't pay any attention to me. I'm kind of grumpy because of Schumacher's problems at Suzuka. First engine failure in the Ferrari in five years. What a time for it to occur. Rats.
Posted by: David Green | Oct 8, 2006 6:51:20 PM
That's O.K David...that's what we call a "That's Racin'"...;P
that's racin' (phrase): Expresses frustration or emotion. 1. When a small part costing just a few dollars fails and stops a $150,000 race car, that's racin'. 2. When you race a competitor for 500 miles and lose to him by just a few feet, that's racin'. 3. When a hot dog wrapper blows out of the stands, gets caught across the air vent on the front of your car and causes your engine to overheat, that's racin'
Posted by: Tbfka#5 | Oct 9, 2006 12:07:17 AM
David,
I don't have to read it again. I personally disagree with it. But, whatever.
Posted by: Keith | Oct 9, 2006 9:55:06 AM
Keith, when the points leader's advantage shrinks from 185 points to 5 (Tony Stewart, last year) or from 57 to 5 (Matt Kenseth, this year), I'm not sure how you can argue that the race for the championship has not become closer. Five points is closer than 185 or 57.
It doesn't matter if the race becomes closer because of the outcome of events on the track or an administrative reshuffling of the points. Closer is closer. You can dislike it, demand that an asterisk be placed beside the column of points, demand that it be changed, pour gasoline on yourself and strike a match to protest by self-immolation, stop watching, or even chose to live in denial and pretend that it's some other way. But in the real world, a tighter race is a tighter race.
The structure of the Chase, as I originally wrote, DOES guarantee a close battle, usually with more than two drivers involved.
The kind of battle Alonso and Schumacher are having in F1 this year is NOT guaranteed. The kind of fight for the '92 Winston Cup title was not guaranteed. Showdowns like those do NOT happen every year. They happen spontaneously.
That, in my opinion, makes them special in a way that Kurt Busch's title in 2004, Tony Stewart's in 2005, and this year's championship, no matter how it turns out, can never be. But the margins of victory for the champions are, numerically, small. That makes the battles for those titles closer.
We can argue the merits of the Chase all you want, and you and I are going to agree more than we disagree, I suspect. But simple mathmatics are not changed. If the leader's advantage shrinks, the battle is closer. No "whatever" to it.
Posted by: David Green | Oct 9, 2006 11:45:57 AM
David, sorry about Schumacher. I thought of you immediately. Has it been determined what "broke" to cause the engine failure?
Alonso might have been critical of Fisichella after China, but he showed some respect for his teammate after the Japanese Grand Prix. As soon as Alonso realized that Fisichella was “weeping,” as I believe Bob Varsha stated, his mood changed, and he stood silently on the podium during the anthems. So he does have a little compassion after all.
Brazil in two weeks will be worth watching. Unfortunately, I’ll have to choose between F1 and Martinsville. But I think F1 will get my vote that week. If something happens to Alonso, Michael will have his 8th.
And Florida/Auburn will be the pick Sat. night over Charlotte. So there will be two weeks that Nextel Cup is NOT the priority in my house. And the ratings continue to drop! ;-)
I agree with you 100%. Close finishes are by no means a regular occurrence. When they do happen, they are exciting, such as the battle between Alonso and Schumacher.
But NASCAR has made it to where it WILL happen in Nextel Cup. And with the lead Kevin Harvick has in the Busch Series, I have a feeling they will have a version of “The Chase” in 2007.
Do I like it? No. But it’s there, and I’ll watch no matter what. . .unless the Gators are playing and there's a battle for an F1 championship! ;-)
Good job David!
Posted by: Shirley | Oct 9, 2006 1:42:06 PM
David, my therapist said I'm not allowed near flammible liquids or ignition sources...I think he means matches?!...Oh well I'm off to run with scissors!
Posted by: Tbfka#5 | Oct 9, 2006 2:51:32 PM
Hey David,
Maybe the phrase should be,
"It's just racing"
Posted by: Larry | Oct 9, 2006 3:26:57 PM
David,
Good post. I have never gotten into F1, but I think the Chase has given Nascar what it wanted. Nascar wants a close points battle and they have it. The top 5 drivers separated by about 50 points.
I think it is going to be very hard for any of the drivers over 100 points out to make up that difference. I would love to see Dale Jr. win it but I think Talladega was his best chance to gain points. Jeff could get on a good run but he would need the other 6 guys to mess up. I don't see that happening. Johnson, Kahne, and Busch are out.
Posted by: Michelle | Oct 9, 2006 4:13:28 PM
Thanks, guys. Shirley, I too will be checking in on that Florida-Auburn game, but the blush is off that rose a little bit after what Arkansas did to Auburn Saturday, huh?
#5, be sure to hold those scissors by the handle, so the point is sticking up when you run, OK? ;D
Larry -- for sure. It is, after all, just racing. Good reminder.
Michelle, F1 can be entertaining. I have found Schumacher to be one of the truly great drivers I've ever had the privilege of watching. I wish he could've gone out with an eighth championship.
As catastrophic as that engine failure in Japan was, Schumi has the right perspective on things. He talked about how much he and Ferrari have accomplished and how much good fortune they have enjoyed.
Posted by: David Green | Oct 9, 2006 5:36:43 PM
Arkansas beating Auburn is what scares me. Auburn is gonna be a rather ticked off football team by the time Florida shows up. But if Meyer keeps putting in trick plays with Tebow, who knows what will happen.
Plus it's in Full Circle formate on ESPN. I watched the FSU/Miami game in Full Circle, looking forward to Saturday night.
And don't give up on Michael. They haven't even got the cars to Brazil yet. Anything can happen, cuz it is after all a "race."
I hope he gets #8. That would put him up there with Bob Glidden and John Force. Not bad company to be associated with. And Frank Kimmel might as well.
I wouldn't be surprised if Jeff Gordon isn't part of that elite "club" before he retires.
Those are some pretty awesome names, and Michael is worthy to be part of it. Good luck!
Posted by: Shirley | Oct 9, 2006 6:21:12 PM
Shirley! That's boderline heresy! Treasonistic even! To say that the #24 might win 8 Cup championships! What is he like mid 30's, I don't sse him racing much past 40. It's no longer the NASCAR of old that the "King" ruled, and Dale didn't adapt well to "radial" tires. Jeff may win 5 before he retires but it won't be anytime soon. I'm certain he'll win more races than the # 3, But I feel it's safe to say Richard's and Dale's 7 Championships are safe...even from a guy named "Smoke"
Posted by: Tbfka#5 | Oct 9, 2006 9:56:33 PM
Bud, you're probably correct. BUT, if Evernham would have stayed with Jeff, and maybe Loomis, then we'd talk 8 championships for Gordon.
The "Drive for Five" has been taking a while to get there, hasn't it?
Posted by: Shirley | Oct 10, 2006 6:35:08 AM
oooooH don't get me goin' with Evernham!
Posted by: Tbfka#5 | Oct 10, 2006 1:42:05 PM
Hey, it's my responsibility to insert Rush references into column titles David!
Kurt's next article: Tires Spitting Gravel
Posted by: Kurt Smith | Oct 11, 2006 12:37:23 PM
Post a comment
Advertisements
Subscribe to this blog's feed