Rookie race should be exciting

By Mike Harper

During the 2002 NASCAR Nextel Cup Series season, the fans were entertained with an exciting rookie race between Ryan Newman and Jimmie Johnson. In a classic clash between upcoming drivers from the Penske and Hendrick stables, the two young-guns traded the rookie points lead throughout the season. In the end, Newman won the rookie title over Johnson by 23 points.

Since 2002, the rookie race has been less dramatic. While Jamie McMurray won the 2003 rookie title over Greg Biffle by 37 points, it wasn’t the battle seen by fans the season earlier.

In the last three seasons, the success of individual rookie drivers Kasey Kahne, Kyle Busch and Denny Hamlin overshadowed the actual rookie competition and ultimately made the rookie of the year race a non-story for the media and fans.

I believe the 2007 rookie chase will be a different story.

Let’s meet eight of the 2007 rookie contenders:

Regan Smith and Jon Wood have little hope of winning the rookie title. Not due to the lack of talent, but because both are only running a limited schedule. Smith is scheduled to drive 16 races while sharing the No. 01 Chevy with veteran driver Mark Martin and Wood will drive in 10 races for the Wood Brothers’ No. 21, sharing the ride with Ken Schrader.

Brandon Whitt is looking at running fulltime in the No. 72 Chevy. While I agree Whitt is a good talent, unfortunately this team will not be able to take full advantage of Whitt’s skills because of their lack of funding and resources found with a single car operation. If Whitt is able to run the full season he should finish in the sixth spot in rookie standing.

A.J. Allmendinger will take the wheel of Red Bull’s No. 84 and team up with Brian Vickers. Allmendinger is not only running for the rookie of the year, but he is doing it with a new team and a new manufacturer. Making races will be a challenge for this new team and I predict Allmendinger to finish fifth in the rookie standings.

When fans think of DEI, Paul Menard is not the driver that first comes to mind. Actually, he’s not second either. Menard will drive the No. 15 Chevy and unfortunately if history repeats itself, the third team out of the DEI stable won’t find much success in the Cup Series. That said, Menard has shown he can run up front with the big boys at times during Busch Series competition. But that was the Busch Series. In the Cup Series, Menard should find a home in the rookie standings securing fourth place.

The new king on the block is David Reutimann, driver of Michael Waltrip’s Domino’s/Burger King No. 00 Toyota. This is a tough pick for me because I think Reutimann will either find success in Cup or he’ll realize difficulties behind the wheel of Waltrip’s Toyota. What I like about Reutimann is he’s consistent and hard to rattle. But if he can qualify for each race, look for him to finish a strong third in the rookie standings.

With two drivers left standing you may be surprised with who I’ll pick as the Rookie of the Year winner. Before I jump too far ahead, I think fans may be treated to a rookie battle equaled to the excitement of the 2002 rookie race. Not only is the level of talent fighting for the title impressive, but the growing rivalry between the two organizations that these drivers represent, creates an environment of drama that the media and fans desire.

Ganassi Racing going head-to-head against Roush Racing should be played up in the media. From the time when Roush signed Jamie McMurray away from Ganassi, the only real battle between these two organizations has been sound bites being tossed around in the media. I get the feeling they don’t like each other.

In 2007 it’s Ganassi’s rookie against Roush’s rookie, straight up!

Juan Pablo Montoya has been very impressive in a stock car. I’ll admit it, I thought he was going to struggle, but he has surprised me and has won me over. From running ARCA races to Busch Series last season, Montoya has come a long way in a short time, but let’s not forget he is a very talented driver. Montoya will take the wheel of the No. 42 Ganassi Dodge from Casey Mears (who left for Hendrick Motorsports) and has the opportunity to win the rookie title and put the No. 42 in the Chase for the first time.

David Ragan takes over for Mark Martin in Roush’s No. 6 Ford. While Ragan inherits a championship caliber team, he’ll realize challenges due to his limited experience in Cup Series racing. But, yes there’s a but. Ragan is a true racer. His no fear, full throttle racing attitude will come into play and it will create positive opportunities as it did for Denny Hamlin last season.

I believe at tracks where Montoya will struggle, Ragan will shine and where Ragan fails, Montoya will find success. This should be a very exciting battle of organizations and rookies, but in the end, David Ragan wins the 2007 rookie title.