The champion after Jimmie

By DAVID GREEN

Seems to me that this is a quieter beginning to the brief off-season than usual. The hottest story going is whether Chad Knaus is going to re-up with Hendrick, and that's almost a week old.

Of course, there's always Danica. The story confirming Danica's signing with Andretti Autosport for three more years included the obligatory "no news about a move to NASCAR" boilerplate paragraph.

But we don't need no stinkin' hard news in order to discuss our favorite subject. So, thanks to my buddy Paul Borden for this suggestion: Which driver is most likely to succeed -- as in, succeed Jimmie Johnson as Cup champion?

Paul offered his own thoughts:

"A former winner: I pick Kurt Busch. Thought he finished the year well and appears to be getting his act back together. The crew should be more settled, too.

"First-time winner: Denny Hamlin. Imagine if he had managed top 15 finishes or maybe even just top 20s instead of those DNFs in the chase.

"Popular: Greg Biffle.

"Sentimental: Mark Martin, of course. (He's also popular)."

Some good thoughts, and interestingly organized. Here's my response to Paul:

Carl Edwards. This year was so off for him, if next year is just average, he'll be a contender.

Jeff Gordon. Gordo will either get back into solid contention next year or he's done. (Sure wish he'd give US F1 a fling.

Mark Martin. For sentimental reasons, as you mentioned, but also because the old guy is still very, very good.

Kurt Busch is another good pick, if the Penske team can sort out whatever it was that led Pat Tryson to quit and come up with a good replacement. The Biff may well be right there with Cousin Carl, if the Fords get their stuff together. Kenseth, too.

Not sure about Hamlin, unless he grows up and gets his fellow arrogant punk, Brad Keselowski, out of his head. Of course, red mist hasn't kept Tony Stewart from winning two titles, but I suspect it may have prevented him from contending for a third at one or more points along the way. Hard to say whether Kyle Busch will be much better than Hamlin in the emotional intelligence department, with similar detrimental effects on the 18 team.

Anybody else want to weigh in?